Mitigram's CEO, Milena Torciano interviews Global Head of Country Risk, HSBC, Victoire De Groote on the impact of the crisis on world trade, geo-political tension and the possible scenarios with changes in the structure of trades. Will the crisis last? Is this the end of globalization? Can Emerging Markets benefit of the current changes?
Timeline of the podcast:
- 0:34 - Q: Is COVID a one-off shock or the impact of the pandemic is here to stay?
- 1:25 - The reasons why is this crisis unique.
- 1:56 - Manufacturing production slow-down in pre-pandemic.
- 2:45 - "Surprise index" and recovery alphabet.
- 4:05 - Q: Have we seen the worst in the market indicators yet?
- 4:50 - Unemployment expectations.
- 5:30 - Drop in retail sales.
- 5:50 - Q: Are we at the beginning of the end of globalisation?
- 6:30 - How globalisation will be impacted moving forward.
- 7:22 - Q: What is the impact of geo-political tension?
- 7:44 - The future of US - China trade wars.
- 8:52 - The Brexit scenarios.
- 9:28 - The role of oil supply and price.
- 9:50 - Q: Who are the winners and losers of this crisis?
- 10:33 - The countries benefitting from the change in structure of trades.
- 11:28 - Sectors and industries affected both positively and negatively.
- 12:01 - Q: What are the long term expected effects of the crisis?
- 12:40 - The role of banks and financial institutions in the solution of the crisis.
- 13:50 - The need for process automation, options and digital relationship between corporates and financial counter-parties.