Will COVID 19 pandemic result in structural changes in trade?
The world economic crisis resulting from the pandemic has affected almost all countries in the world. The recovery is now expected in most regions, thanks to a catch up effect, expectations of a vaccine and very supportive fiscal policies.The crisis will nevertheless have lasting effects. It will bring or accelerate structural changes and will impact trade in several ways. Geopolitical tensions and a new US administration create further uncertainties. In this paper we briefly discuss some of these issues:
Changes in supply chains
Employment and consumption
Public deficits and “Zombie” companies
Geopolitical tensions
Biden administration
Oil and commodity prices
Conclusions
About the Author: Victoire de Groote Global Head of Country Risk, HSBC
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